Home' Employment Forecast : MyCareer Employment Forecast April 2011 Contents Total Jobs
In previous reports, the Finance Sector report had focused on the banking sub-sector, but increasingly the banks are moving into
insurance and superannuation, so those sub-sectors are now included in this review.
The recent interest rate rises have stalled the growth in this sector, as consumers have tightened their demand for credit. This
turnaround has been nothing short of spectacular. From 2002 to 2005, households were spending more than they earned and
went on a borrowing binge. Since that time, a more prudent mood has taken hold and Australia’s households in total are now big
savers. Business has also restricted its demand for credit, with the level of business credit extended still falling compared with
a growth rate of more than 20% just prior to the GFC. This has meant the demand for loans and credit has stagnated, placing
growth pressure on the banks and therefore restricting expansion in revenue and jobs.
Victoria has been the standout in this sector, due to the relatively strong economic conditions in that state. Further, Westpac
has announced it will relaunch the Bank of Melbourne into the Victorian market and this should stimulate demand for workers
in this sector. NSW is still the leader in the Finance Sector, accounting for 41% of jobs, although this has fallen from a peak of
44.9% in 2000. While the sector is losing jobs in NSW, with the economy growing quite well, jobs growth should be restored over
the next year. A stronger economy means that jobs are growing in WA, while Queensland is suffering the impact of a relatively
weak economy. The jobs decline in SA is a refection of the lower demand for loans and credit overall.
Confdence in this sector has recovered from the effects of the GFC, although it has softened recently with the share market
wobbles and interest rate rises. The strength in confdence and the better economy are strong positives but they have been
tempered with the softening in demand for loans. Job vacancies are well up from their GFC levels but vacancies softened a little
at the start of the year. On the positive side, several foreign banks have fagged their intention to ramp up operations here. The
wash-up of this is that the EMDA models are showing a return to annual growth by November 2011, but only just.
MyCareer Employment Forecast
Confdence is restored but this is yet to translate into jobs growth
Links Archive MyCareer Employment Forecast 2010 October Edition Navigation Previous Page Next Page