Home' Employment Forecast : MyCareer Employment Forecast April 2011 Contents Total Jobs
Jobs growth in the Retail Sector is restored after a year of a falling jobs market. The modest growth in retail sales (+2.3% in the
year to February 2011) has supported this trend. This sector has been negatively impacted by two factors. Firstly, online sales from
overseas websites continue to grow, due in part to the high value of the Australian dollar, but also because of improvements in the
convenience of shopping online. Secondly, there has been a dramatic increase in the level of household savings as consumers want
to save more rather than spending their hard-earned cash at the shopping mall.
In a sign of the overall better economic environment, the restaurant and cafe sub-sector is showing strong signs of sales growth,
with turnover up more than 8.3% . This sales growth is supporting growth in retail positions of 3.8%. This is now having an impact
on food bought for home consumption, which although it is still growing in terms of sales, (+2.2% year ended January 2011), is a
far cry from the growth of 7.8% in the middle of 2009. However, jobs in this sub-sector continue to grow, with positions +4.6%
to the year ended February 2011. Areas that continue to struggle are department stores and speciality clothing outlets, as well as
furniture and electrical retailers, as consumers tighten their belts to save more.
The differing economic performances of the states is also refected in the jobs growth. Victoria, which hardly missed a beat during
the GFC, is now recording the highest jobs growth (+6.1%). Queensland is showing signs of improvement with jobs up 4.5% after
declining during 2010, while NSW is still feeling the effects of a sluggish Retail Sector, with jobs falling by 1.1%. However, this is
much better than in mid-2009, when jobs were falling by 6%. SA tends to be a steady performer and jobs are fat at the moment.
The Retail Sector in WA is yet to beneft fully from the recovery in the Mining Sector, with jobs still falling slightly. This is a big
improvement from the double-digit declines of early last year.
There are now more positive signs for the jobs outlook in the Retail Sector. Consumer confdence is now at levels similar to those
prior to the GFC, although it has softened recently after the natural disasters, interest rate rises and share market wobbles.
Business confdence in this sector is still positive and the EMDA models are showing solid jobs growth by the end of the year.
MyCareer Employment Forecast
Consumers have been spending less, saving more, but changes are underway
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