Home' Employment Forecast : April 2010 Contents MyCareer Employment Forecast
Although jobs have fallen in the Retail Sector, the fall would have been higher had the Economic Stimulus payments not been
made. Even so, jobs fell by 2.4%. Retailers have been nervous about the scope of the recovery and this has been reflected in the
mix of jobs. Full time jobs have been reduced by 3.9 % and have been falling since the start of the GFC. On the other hand, part
time jobs have been growing strongly as retailers adjust their costs. This adjustment has allowed the retailers generally to release
quite good profit results under the circumstances. Retailers such as David Jones, Wesfarmers and Woolworths are examples.
Reflecting the mood of a more self-help attitude amongst consumers over these uncertain times, jobs in hardware, building
and garden supplies have been growing (+4.4%), whereas the higher cost areas such as floor and furniture retailers have been
shedding jobs (-6.7%). Food retailing, which had been growing jobs with the assistance of strong food sales, is now shedding jobs.
The performance State by State is quite varied. In Victoria, retail jobs growth has been restored as that State's economy
continues to grow. SA has also shown jobs growth. On the other hand, the weakness in the Queensland and NSW retail jobs
market also reflects the relative economic weakness of those States. WA is also shedding jobs at this stage.
The outlook, however, is improving, with consumers becoming increasingly confident. In fact, Roy Morgan Research consumer
confidence is at near record levels. Retail businesses are also becoming more confident (measured by the NAB) with confidence
rising from a trough of -26.3 in December 08 to +15.7 by December 09. This much improved confidence is expected to translate
into jobs growth later in the year, with quarterly jobs rising 0.1% in the August 10 quarter and 0.3% in the November 10 quarter.
With tills ringing again, jobs growth is forecast for this sector
Source: ABS/EMDA Model 2010
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