Home' Employment Forecast : April 2010 Contents 3
MyCareer Employment Forecast
Jobs growth in NSW really stalled after the GFC got underway, but now the State is lifting itself out of the doldrums, with the
economy growing by 4.3% in the December 09 quarter. This is well ahead of the National average of 2.8% for the quarter.
However, despite this, employment growth remains weak and NSW is still losing full time positions, although the rate of decline
Looking forward, there is more positive news for the State, with NSW GDP forecast to grow to an annual rate of 2.5% in 2010/11,
compared with just 1.0% in 2008/09. Another area that is strengthening in NSW is population growth. NSW's population
was growing at a rate of 1.7% by September 09, which is three times higher than it was in 03/04 (+0.5%). This will further
stimulate economic activity. There are also a number of large projects underway or in the pipeline such as the $1.5 billion Hunter
Expressway, Hume Highway upgrades worth $920 million, the Sydney Airport being upgraded at a cost of $590 million and the
$490 million redevelopment of the international terminal at Botany Bay, to name a few.
There are signs already that the job market is starting to stir in NSW. Business employment intentions have lifted considerably,
with the index rising to +9.3 in December 09 compared to a near historic low of -24.0 in December 08. Furthermore, after years
of steady decline, NSW is maintaining its share of employment (31.7%) of total Australian jobs. There are also better signs in jobs
advertised with job ads (ANZ) lifting 16.4% in March 10.
With a stronger economy, improved employment intentions and job ads lifting, the jobs outlook is better, with the annual rate of
jobs growth expected to rise to 1.3% p.a. by 2011. However, this is still below the forecast Australian jobs growth rate.
NSW is emerging from the doldrums as confidence lifts
Source: EMDA Model 2010
NAB Job Intentions
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
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