Home' Employment Forecast : April 2010 Contents MyCareer Employment Forecast
The world economy continues to recover, thanks largely to strong growth in Asia, especially China and India. However, many
advanced countries are still performing well below par, whereas the Australian economy has well and truly managed to navigate
the turbulent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) waters. Australia recorded annual GDP growth of 2.0% in the December quarter
compared with December 09. This has occurred largely due to low interest rates, stimulatory Government spending, high
population growth, strong trade links with Asia and a solid banking system. Australia's population growth in 2009 was 2.1% p.a.,
making it one of the fastest growing nations in the developed world; this is higher than China (0.6%), India (1.4%) and the USA
Unemployment is now falling in Australia, which also underlines how strong the Australian economy has been in recent months.
Unemployment fell from just under 5.8% in mid-2009 to 5.3% by early 2010. Given that full employment is typically thought of
as between 4% and 4.5%, it is apparent that Australia is heading towards full employment quite quickly and this, in turn, means
that the skills shortages experienced prior to the GFC will emerge again. Indeed, some sectors are already experiencing this.
In other signs of the strengthening labour market, wages, after moderating in the first half of 2009, are now starting to head up
again as conditions improve. Total hours worked are lifting as well (+1.0% February 10) compared to last year and are at their
highest level recorded by the ABS. ABS job vacancies have also lifted by 12% from November 09.
Labour market hiring intentions by business have improved significantly --- in December 09 they rose to +10.4, compared to -25
at the trough in March 09. With employment hiring intentions improving significantly, the forecasts are for a strengthening in
the labour market. Jobs growth is forecast to increase to an annual rate of 1.7% by early next year.
NAB Job Intentions
Source: EMDA Model 2010
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
With hiring intentions rising, the labour market is strengthening
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