Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents The Age Employment Forecast
This sector is not immune from economic downturns as evidenced by the reduction in jobs in 2001 and 2002, and it this time
around, in fact, this sector has had its worst fall on record. The Property part of the sector has experienced a weak six to nine
months, with developers and real estate agents’ positions both falling. It has been a diffcult time across the Business Services
as well as the fow on effect of credit drying up and cost cutting lead to reductions in the demand for this sector. With a fat
job market, demand for recruitment services has been very weak, with jobs in this sub-sector down 12.9%. There has been a
signifcant change though compared with the 1991 recession. This time around companies are offering more fexible ways of
cutting staff costs, such as offering part time roles, hours reduction, lower wages and encouraging leave, rather than laying off
staff. The diffculty in obtaining staff only a few years ago is still etched into Corporate memories. The wash-up is that although
job numbers have fallen, it could have been worse.
This has been a soft sector in Victoria, with jobs weakening by just over 5%, following the national trends. The slowdown
in Victoria has impacted on the demand for architects, real estate agents and lawyers. Accounting positions, particularly in
Corporate Insolvency have grown slightly, although overall the growth has been weak.
In terms of the outlook there are a number of more positive factors than six months ago. Business confdence has improved
signifcantly. Housing prices are increasing again, with price gains in all major cities compared to March 09. In Melbourne, house
prices rose 5.2% in the June 09 quarter compared with March 09. This always leads to increased demand for residential related
services such a real estate agents and conveyancing services. EMDA models are showing jobs to grow again by the May 10
quarter, with quarterly jobs up 0.7%.
Source: EMDA Model 2009
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
The GFC induced slowdown has impacted on this sector, but the outlook is better
Property and Business
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