Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents 17
The Age Employment Forecast
As the Finance Industry is in the epicentre of the GFC, it is no surprise that jobs have been falling in this Sector. What is
surprising to some extent is that the fall has not been much greater. In August 2009 jobs are down 2.8% making the sector
the second worst performing sector after manufacturing. Having said that, other than a few notable business failures
(ie: Opes Prime, Storm Financial, Babcock and Brown), Australian banks have performed very well compared to their overseas
peers. One area that has been impacted though are fnance frms such as Wizard (now closed), that depended on funds
from the US to lend to Australians. That type of business has virtually closed. Another area that has been hard hit is in the
Financial advisory sub-sector, with ANZ cutting 50 jobs and the Bank West has cut 400 positions after the merger with the
The fnancial system across the world has become much more stable over the last six months and even more so in Australia.
Interbank lending rates, a measure of the risk of failure in the fnancial sector, are back to usual levels after they reached very
high levels when Lehman Brothers collapsed.
In Victoria, the Finance sector has suffered, with a large fall in jobs during the GFC. Reductions in bank staff numbers and cuts
to fnancial planning agencies have taken their toll in this sector. Diners Club has moved its operations to Sydney.
Looking forward, with the more stable fnancial system and improved economic outlook, EMDA models are showing
employment growth in the frst half of 2010. Already, St.George Bank has announced plans to open 20 new branches across
Australia and Morgan Stanley is expanding in Australia. The Big 4 banks have also indicated that their hiring intentions have
improved. Business confdence in the sector, although still negative (-5) has vastly improved from the Dec 08 quarter when the
index in this sector was -33. This was Dec 08 reading was when the crisis was at its peak. This was even worse than the reading
in the depth of the 1991 recession (-25).
Source: EMDA Model 2009
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
The epicentre of the Global Financial Crisis has passed
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