Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents 15
The Age Employment Forecast
This sector, has proved more cyclical of late as the sector becomes more exposed to market forces. This is due to the increase
in importance of overseas students and the higher proportion of Private School enrolments, and both of these are infuenced by
economic conditions, making this sector more cyclical.
One recent diffculty has been the closure of a number of colleges catering to overseas students and the recent concern about
the safety of Indian students. With 455,000 enrolments of International Students contributing $11.7 billion to the economy,
the overseas student component is a signifcant element of the Education economy. The Indian component is facing pressure
though on several fronts. Firstly, attacks on Indian students have been widely reported in India and secondly the college closures
have made prospective students and their parents more nervous about enrolling in Australia. At this stage new enrolments are
expected to halve from India, at a cost to the Australian economy of $1 billion. Already, Indian enrolments at Adelaide University
are down 43%, at Griffth University they are down 12%.
On the plus side, the economic downturn has also resulted in the number of students increasing rather than trying to fnd a job,
meaning more enrolments and therefore more demand for teaching staff. Applications for Uni places have jumped 6% this year
alone. At this stage demand for Private School placements remains solid, although not as strong as in the boom times of 2006.
EMDA models are showing a fat market in the latter half of 2009, with more growth in early 2010.
In Victoria, the Education sector has been stable, but this sector has not been immune from the GFC. The Melbourne
International College closed during 2009 impacting 300 students, the Totally Indigo and Beauty College also closed, leaving
56 students in the lurch. The negative publicity focussing on attacks on Indians and closures is already impacting, with Victoria
University reporting a 27% drop in Indian student enrolments. However, the Government has taken initiatives to protect the
overseas student market by emphasising safety in Melbourne and protecting enrolments by offering to either fnd alternative
places or provide refunds if colleges close. Only time will tell if this is enough.
Popn. Aged 14-65
Source: EMDA Model 2009
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
This sector has become more exposed to market forces and jobs growth has slowed in response to the GFC
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