Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents 13
The Age Employment Forecast
After continued strong growth since 2001 (the last economic softening in Australia), this sector has stopped growing jobs. There
are a number of competing forces in this sector at the moment. On the plus side the various home buyer grants offered by State
and Federal Governments have stimulated the frst home buyer end of the market. In addition, building activity associated with
the Federal Government Economic Stimulus plan have also started to kick into this sector. In fact, the value of Public Sector
approvals are up 29% (YTD Jul 2009). On the negative side, inability to source fnance and nervousness about the stability of
the market, have lead to a reduction in large scale apartment approvals and weakening Private Sector approvals. The value of
Private Sector approvals is down 27% (YTD July 2009). Approvals in the non-residential Private Sector are down a staggering
39% (YTD July 2009) in value, a level not seen since the depths of the 1991 recession. A major benefciary of the spending by
Government has been in construction related to the Health sector and Education sectors, areas that are typically thought of as
Business confdence in this sector, while still weak is much better than it was in March 09 when confdence was -28. Now it has
recovered to a neutral zero. This, combined with the level of Public Sector work, is forecast to generate growth in this sector and
by May 2010 jobs are forecast to be growing at +1.8% on a quarterly basis.
In Victoria this sector is reasonably stable. The Government has supported this sector through major infrastructure projects such
as the Bolte Bridge / Monash Freeway interchange, supported by funding for Health Sector development and school upgrades.
Over the near term the Government will continue to boost this sector, as Public Sector approvals are up +20.7% by value. On the
other hand Private Sector approvals are down 19%, underlying the fragile nature of the recovery at this stage.
Source: EMDA Model 2009
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
Thanks to the large number of infrastructure projects, growth is expected to return to this sector
Construction and Property
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