Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents The Age Employment Forecast
This sector, especially the air transport component, is closely linked to the strength of the economy and with the economy
slowing, jobs growth has also slowed. The sector has maintained some growth however and already there are some more positive
signs. Amongst the Transport businesses confdence has fallen again, but in the June quarter the fall (-5.1) was less than in
the March 09 quarter (-21.8) and the December 08 quarter (-24.1). Road transport, after losing jobs earlier in the year, is now
increasing employment (+3.3% YTD August 09). Even the airline sector, which had been shedding jobs since November 2006
is now starting to grow again. The storage sector has been much weaker, with jobs contracting as businesses run down their
inventories, although this run down of inventories appears to have bottomed out.
With modest economic growth expected over the next six months, this sector is forecast to start growing jobs again, although the
growth rate will be weak. By May 2010, EMDA models are showing that quarterly jobs growth will rise to 0.8%.
In Victoria, Transport and Storage jobs have been strong, although they are starting to slow in growth now. Road transport has
remained strong, emphasising Melbourne’s role as a transport hub. Air transport has also remained strong, thanks to Tiger
Airlines. This airline has expanded its feet operating from Tullamarine, increasing its capacity by 25% and generating 330 direct
and indirect jobs. Jet Star continues to expand its operations as well. In the Public Transport sub-sector, Metro Trains Melbourne
(MTM) and Keolis Downer EDI (KDR) have won contracts to run the city’s transport services for the next eight years, with an
option to renew for another seven years. They are planning to increase services which will also result in jobs growth.
T & S Confidence
Source: EMDA Model 2009
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
This sector is heavily infuenced by the economic cycle and with weak growth expected, this sector is forecast to
experience only modest jobs growth in 2010
Transport and Storage
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