Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents 11
The Age Employment Forecast
Source: EMDA Model 2009
The Government Economic stimulus payments, plus lower interest rates were not enough to stop a decline in jobs in this
sector, but the result to August 2009 would have been worse without them. In fact, jobs have held up as retail sales have held
reasonably well and are now growing at +4.5% (YTD July 09). This is up from the low point of +3.6% early in 2009 when the
GFC was in its worst phase and consumer confdence was low. A bright spot has been supermarket sales which have been very
strong, increasing at 7.6% as consumers choose more to eat at home rather than eat out and this has lead to jobs growth in this
sub-sector. Takeaway liquor sales have also been very strong (+11.6% ) for the same reason, that is people eating and entertaining
more at home in response to the harsher economic climate.
Retail business confdence within the sector is still weak, but it is much higher than it was in the December 08 and March 09
quarters, when confdence was as low as in the 1991 recession. In 1991 confdence remained very low for seven quarters, whereas
this time only two quarters of very poor confdence were recorded.
With confdence in the sector returning, EMDA models show that this sector will start slowly growing jobs again in the November
2009 quarter, although this recovery will be slow. The big expansion in the hardware sector, with Woolworths announcing they
will launch a major competitor to Bunnings, will also give this sector a boost.
In Victoria, the sector has followed the National pattern, with retail shedding jobs due to the GFC, but retail sales have remained
quite robust with sales growing at 5.7% (YTD July 09), and this is up from the trough earlier in the year. With quite robust sales,
improved consumer confdence and positive economic growth, jobs are expected to start growing again in this sector in Victoria.
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
Low interest rates and improved consumer confdence will restore jobs growth in this sector
Links Archive April 2010 Navigation Previous Page Next Page