Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents 5
The Age Employment Forecast
Source: EMDA Model 2009
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
After the impact of the GFC, Victorian jobs are forecast to start growing again later this year
Like the rest of Australia, jobs growth in Victoria has slowed in response to the GFC. In the last two quarters, although the State
shed jobs, the reduction was very small and much lower than was expected in December 2008.
Now, there are some positive signs. Housing prices have started to rise again after the slump in late 2008. Residential building
approvals, including renovations, although still falling, are down 3.4% on an annual basis (YTD July 09). Victoria’s population
growth is increasing, to 1.95% p.a. in 2008, up from 1.2% p.a. in 2003. Retail sales are growing at 5.7% (YTD July 09). The
outlook for the private commercial building sector is weak, with the value of approvals down 42.2% (YTD July 09), but the
decline is showing signs of stabilising.
A number of major developments are also underway or planned that will provide support for the Victorian economy. Current
projects include the $1.4 billion road upgrade expanding the links from the Bolte Bridge to the Monash Freeway and a new $750
million coal fred power plant is underway in the La Trobe Valley. The Wimmera Mallee Water Authority has allocated $688 million
to converting open water channels to pipelines to conserve water. The Tullamarine Airport is also being expanded at a cost of
$330 million. Other projects planned include a $2.3 billion upgrade to the Western Ring Road.
Business confdence has improved signifcantly over the last six months. This, combined with stable economic conditions means
that the EMDA model is showing signs of an improved job market over the next six months. Jobs are forecast to be growing by
0.2% in early next year, however, this is still below the 2007/08 rates of growth. To achieve those growth rates Business hiring
intentions will need to recover further.
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