Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents The Age Employment Forecast
Source: EMDA Model 2009
NAB Job Intentions
Change in Jobs
Change in Jobs Quarterly
Just as NSW was showing signs of restoring growth momentum in the economy and job market, the Global Financial Crisis hit
hard. Sydney is the epicentre of the fnancial industry in Australia as it accounts for 42% of the total jobs in that sector and it was
this sector that was hit particularly hard. This meant that in NSW the fnancial sector joined the manufacturing, agriculture and
tourism sectors on the sick list. Even with these headwinds, however, NSW has performed better than in the 1991 recession, when
full time jobs fell 3%. Now full-time jobs are falling by 1.3%.
There are now signs that things are turning the corner for NSW. Population growth has started to improve again, lifting to
1.4%, and although this is still behind the national average of 1.9%, it is much better than in 2003 when the rate of growth was
only 0.6%. Lower interest rates are also starting to have an impact, with lower mortgage repayments and improved consumer
confdence resulting in retail sales growing (+2.8% YTD July 09). By contrast, sales were only growing at 1.3% at the beginning of
the year. The value of building approvals has also bottomed out and this includes new residential activity as well, although overall
the total value of approvals is down 22% (YTD July 09).
A number of major infrastructure projects will also provide support to the NSW economy. This includes the $900 million upgrade
of the Sydney Opera House, a proposed $2.2 billion development of a 600 turbine wind farm and the $1.9 billion desalination plant,
although this is nearing completion. There is also the $1.5 billion Hunter Expressway upgrade, between the F3 and the Branxton
Highway that will be under construction until 2013.
This improved economic outlook is forecast to result in a better outlook for the NSW job market. EMDA models are showing that
jobs will start increasing in the Feb. 10 quarter, although growth will be weak.
NSW is forecast to grow jobs in the frst half of 2010, after stalling in 2009
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