Home' Employment Forecast : October 2009 Contents The Age Employment Forecast
With the worst behind us, the job market is looking much better than it was only six months ago
At the time of preparing our last report, the world was in the grip of a fnancial meltdown. Business and
Consumer confdence had fallen dramatically and even similarities with the on-set of the Great Depression was
touted by many. The depth of the despair is no better illustrated than the fall in hiring intentions which fell to
-26 in the March 09 quarter, which is close to the nadir of the 1991 recession (-30.7 March 91). In 1991 however,
there were 11 quarters of double digit decline in hiring intentions, this time round we experienced just three
quarters of decline (Dec 08, March 09 and June 09) and already intentions are improving.
Against the very pessimistic expectations earlier in the year, the Australian job market has held up well under
the weight of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), although the number of people employed was static last quarter.
This is in line with EMDA’s forecasts. A number of factors have contributed to this relatively good result and
these are highlighted in our latest report.
There are now strong signs the worst is behind us. Job ads are stabilising and even increased by 4.1% in April
09, the frst increase since April 2008. Consumer confdence has been restored, confdence is now at a level
only slightly below the 2007 peak and well up from the mid-2008 trough. NAB employment intentions are
much better than in March 2009. There is still about 1.75% ($22 billion) of the Government Economic Stimulus
Plan to be spent in 2009/10 and this will further insulate our economy.
With the improving outlook, EMDA models are forecasting that jobs growth will be restored in the second half of
this year, with a further pick up in growth in the middle of next year.
Although the outlook is better and Australia has experienced a benign job market, there have been some losers.
Generation Y has really experienced the brunt of the reduction in work available and jobs are shrinking for this
group. As a consequence youth unemployment is growing alarmingly. On the other hand Twilight Careers, that
is older workers, are fnding their skills and experience are keenly sought after and jobs for this segment are
growing very strongly.
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